This paper estimates the causal effect of drone strikes on subsequent terrorist violence. Using Bayesian causal forests, we model heterogeneous treatment effects across strike contexts, accounting for the non-random assignment of strikes and the complex temporal structure of conflict data. The analysis contributes to ongoing debates about the effectiveness and unintended consequences of targeted killing campaigns.
This paper examines the military and strategic efficacy of mass drone strike campaigns in the Russia-Ukraine War. Drawing on original data on drone attack patterns, targets, and outcomes, it evaluates whether and under what conditions mass UAV campaigns achieve their intended objectives, with implications for the evolving role of drone warfare in conventional interstate conflict.